It’s never too early to play fortune teller. Who’s your favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February? Each year you can expect the various sportsbooks to step out there and give the odds on each team to win the Super Bowl. According to BetUS.com, the Patriots are the favorites to win Super Bowl XLI. This is probably a consensus amongst most novice football fans. So how does a sportsbook arrive at a team being the preseason “Top Dog”?

Well, every since free agency took effect, it, along with the draft, have been the key contributors to deciding how the landscape of the NFL would be laid out before the start of the season. This year is no different, but I want to give notice to a new significant factor in the determination of which team is favored to go the distance. The new factor is that of the short leash the NFL has for player’s off the field issues. Granted, football is the ultimate team sport and for the most part no single player can make or break a season, but a strong argument can be made that a single player’s issues can be such a distraction that it negatively effects the team’s chemistry. Flashback to T.O’s 2nd season in Philly.

Tank Johnson, Pacman Jones, Chris Henry and now Michael Vick have been this off season’s poster childs for how to disrupt an organization’s Super Bowl plans. Each of which are serving several game suspensions and each of which played a significant role on their respective team. Given that the NFL season is so short, a team cannot afford to miss key players for substantial periods of the season. The only shining light of these situations is that they all have been handled early enough for the teams to make adjustments to plan for life without these players.

Tank was cut and Chicago signed Darwin Walker. Tab Perry was waiting in the wings to take Henry’s playing time. Nick Harper was signed by the Titans. And dare I say, Joey Harrington will start for the Falcons. OK, well 3 of the 4 teams have an adequate backup plan.

So, given that Goodell will probably be the commish for a very long time, these long suspensions may start to become the norm for troublemakers and routinely effect an NFL teams hopes and dreams. If that is the case, I just hope that it is also the norm that he provides teams with sufficient time to develop a backup plan.